Bet creation

After the Belief owners have concretized the Beliefs it is time for a handover to a team.  Depending on the Belief and the company, this team can be more focused on UX, Product, Tech or Business. In our case the Belief was defined as:

“We believe we can increase revenues by 6% through a more helpful ad insertion funnel and therefore creating more clear item descriptions that will in turn increase success-rate to 50% of the 20% of users that have identified this problem”

In our example company, the team that took over the Belief was a quite typical team for a digital product company i.e. a product manager, a UX expert and three developers. 

So what did the organization actually know about the Belief so far? Melissa Perri calls the work done by the Belief owners that we outlined in the last post: “Problem exploration”. This means the Belief owners have broken down the Strategic Intent using data as well as exploratory user research (i.e. more asking users questions than getting feedback on solutions). Where the team now start is to try to map solutions to the identified needs, that is “Solution exploration.”

In our example, the Belief owners had realized that a significant share of the users thought the funnel where they inserted ads was plain bad. They had also connected the share of users that cited this as a problem all the way up to the Strategic Intent of increasing revenues. What they had (correctly) not done however was to investigate what features or flows that made the experience bad. 

The main difference between a Bet and a Belief:
A Belief deconstructs a Strategic Intent.
A Bet formulates a solution that we believe can move us closer to a Belief. 

It is possible and even common to have multiple Bets addressing the same Belief.

The teams responsibility, therefore, is first to figure out what is making the experience bad and what could make it better. There are various techniques for doing this ranging from showing mockups to doing lean test where we build the UI but have very manual processes behind the scenes. By doing these types of Solution Explorations the team is iteration to find a Bet around the Belief.

The team started conducting user interviews where mockups were shown. Based on the feedback they created a new ad insertion page UI where the inputs had to be manually added to the database (served to 1 000 users). They found that the time it took to insert an ad was drastically lower. What’s more: the sellers rated the experience as better and buyers the ads inserted also had better liquidity than a control group. 

The team formulated their Bet as:

“By improving [description of features] we believe that we can improve the ad insertion experience as demonstrated by our experiments. By doing this we believe we can reach half of the effect in [Belief we discussed above] and thereby increase revenues by 3%.”

During the process the team had formulated several iterations of the Bet described above. The next step is to go into Solution Definition which is about building the actual solution and something that is outside the scope of this blog.

Next post we will tie together the process of beliefs and bets.